Will the 2026 Nigeria census report a population above 230 million?

Nigeria is conducting its first national census in nearly two decades, and the results will reshape everything from federal revenue allocation to electoral constituency boundaries. The last census in 2006 recorded 140 million people. International estimates suggest Nigeria could already be above 220 million, but the official count always generates controversy. Predict whether the National Population Commission will report a figure above 230 million. Political sensitivities around state-by-state numbers make this one of the most consequential data releases in Nigerian history.